Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past three months, you probably are aware that U.S. equity markets were strong in 2024’s first quarter. The S&P 500 Index (“S&P 500”) rose 10.56% while the Dow Jones Industrials rose a more modest 6.14%. The first quarter gains were the best for the S&P 500 since 2019.
As always, there is plenty that can go wrong in the next three quarters. First of all, markets are expensive. At the March 28th close of 5258, the S&P 500 is selling for 21.9x 2024’s estimate. This is above both the five and 10 year average price/earnings ratios for the index. Meanwhile the expectation interest rates will fall is not matched by reality so far this year. At year-end 2023, the U.S. 10-year treasury was yielding 3.88%. It ended Q1 at 4.21%.
Our April 2024 Market Commentary and review provided by Peter W. Tuz, CFA, CFP®, President & Director, Portfolio Manager, Chase Investment Counsel.